INSIGHTS After a strong 2024 performance, global trade is now facing headwinds from a tariff surge and rising trade policy uncertainty, a WTO blog said. The world merchandise trade volume may fall by 0.2 per cent this year, with a modest 2.5-per cent recovery likely in 2026. World GDP is now expected to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025—0.6 pps below the baseline prediction—before reaching 2.4 per cent in 2026. Following a strong performance in 2024, global trade is now facing headwind

INSIGHTS Viral TikTok videos are prompting US consumers to buy goods directly from Chinese factories, bypassing tariffs. Creators claim major brand items like Lululemon leggings can be sourced for $5–6. Lululemon has refuted such claims, stressing its controlled distribution. The trend emerges amid heightened US-China trade tensions, with reciprocal tariffs now at 125 per cent. A new wave of viral TikTok videos is shaking up US-China trade dynamics, as Chinese content creators encourage

INSIGHTS Chinese exports to the US now face up to 245 per cent tariffs due to China's retaliatory actions and suspension of key rare earth exports to the US, President Trump has said in an Executive Order. A universal 10 per cent tariff and reinstated 25 per cent steel and aluminium duties form part of Trump's 'America First' agenda. A Section 232 probe into critical mineral imports is also underway. China now faces up to 245 per cent tariffs on its exports to the US as a result of its retali

INSIGHTS European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned President Trump's announcement of universal US tariffs, warning of severe global economic fallout, rising inflation, and harm to consumers and businesses. She stressed the EU's readiness to negotiate but confirmed preparations for countermeasures. Emphasising European unity and resilience, she pledged support for impacted industries. In a response to sweeping new US trade measures, European Commission President Ursula von d

INSIGHTS Several Chinese government departments, trade associations and enterprises have started taking action to help export-oriented businesses tap into the vast domestic market in light of the imposition of US reciprocal tariffs. The China Chain-Store & Franchise Association and seven other industry associations jointly announced an initiative to promote better integration of domestic and foreign trade. Several Chinese government departments, trade associations and enterprises have sta

INSIGHTS Global air cargo demand dipped 0.1 per cent YoY in February 2025, marking the first decline since mid-2023, despite a 0.4 per cent rise in international demand. Capacity fell 0.4 per cent, while international capacity grew 1.1 per cent. Asia-Pacific and Latin America saw demand rise, while the Middle East recorded the sharpest drop. Inflation concerns persisted, and trade lane performance was mixed. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported that global air carg

INSIGHTS The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the change in the consumer price index (CPI) compared with the same month a year earlier, is expected to stand at 2.2 per cent in March, official statistics show. Consumer prices increased by 0.3 per cent month on month in March. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is expected to stand at 2.5 per cent in the month. The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the change in the consumer price index (CPI) compared with the same month a ye

INSIGHTS China's General Office of the State Council has issued guidelines aimed at further strengthening trade policy compliance with WTO regulations. Compliance assessment should be a necessary prerequisite of the introduction of new trade policies, the guidelines emphasised, requiring governments at all levels to assess proposed trade policies in accordance with WTO agreements and China's commitments. China’s General Office of the State Council recently issued guidelines aimed at fur

INSIGHTS ICE cotton futures dipped on Tuesday amid weakness in grain markets and cautious sentiment ahead of the USDA planting intentions report. While several contracts recovered on Wednesday, recent sessions have mostly closed lower. Analysts expect cotton prices to remain range-bound until the USDA releases its report on March 31. Trading volumes increased, while futures stocks remained unchanged. ICE cotton futures eased on Tuesday due to weakness in the grain market and cautious buying a

INSIGHTS ICE cotton futures declined for a second consecutive day as bearish sentiment persisted, despite a weaker dollar and rising crude oil prices. Technical resistance prevented gains, with short positions remaining dominant. Trading volumes were light, and analysts noted weak momentum. S&P Global revised its 2025 US cotton acreage estimate downward. ICE cotton futures continued to decline on Tuesday as bearish sentiment persisted in broader financial markets. US cotton ignored rising